Talk about bad timing. Last month, environmental activists launched a well-funded new attack on Republican "climate change deniers"
in hopes of making global warming a big issue in 2014. But as the
campaign gets underway, a new report from the world's leading climate
scientists could leave environmentalists on the defensive, and the
"deniers" more confident and assertive.
"HOLDING CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS ACCOUNTABLE" read the headline of a
League of Conservation Voters press release announcing a $2 million
barrage of ads aimed at Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, as well as GOP
Reps. Mike Coffman, Dan Benishek and Rodney Davis. "We're changing the
terms of the climate change debate," said an LCV spokesman. "It's no
longer acceptable to be a member of Congress and deny basic science."
'There's no way Congress will consider upending the American economy with
far-reaching tax or regulatory schemes on the basis of flawed computer
projections about a phenomenon that may or may not require any action at
all.'
Organizing for Action, the permanent arm of the Obama campaign,
joined in, staging events and running an ad — 'CALL OUT THE CLIMATE
CHANGE DENIERS!!!' — targeting House Speaker John Boehner and Sen. Marco Rubio, among others.
The goal is to place opposition to the global warming agenda — heavy
environmental regulation, a cap-and-trade or carbon tax program, massive
"green energy" expenditures, huge international wealth transfers —
outside the realm of polite discussion. But the discussion is about to
change.
On Sept. 27, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change will release its fifth report on global warming. Earlier IPCC
assessments — the most recent was in 2007 — were the foundation for
reams of alarmist reporting. For example, after a 2009 update, the
Washington Post ran a story headlined "New Analysis Brings Dire Forecast,"
reporting that a predicted 6.3-degree Fahrenheit increase in world
temperatures "is nearly double what scientists and world policymakers
have identified as the upper limit of warming the world can afford in
order to avert catastrophic climate change.
That was then. Now, the new IPCC document will "dial back the alarm," in the words of a Wall Street Journal preview.
According to the Journal, the report will state that "the temperature
rise we can expect as a result of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide
is lower than the IPCC thought in 2007." The computer forecasts used to
produce those forecasts, it turns out, were wrong.
The effect could be enormous. If scientists now predict that the
earth will warm less, and less quickly, than earlier thought — and also
concede that the planet has not warmed at all in the last decade or so —
the position of the environmental activists, and groups like Organizing
for Action, will be significantly weaker. They'll have a harder time
arguing for drastic and immediate action.
The downgrading of the warming threat, writes the Journal, "points to
the very real possibility that, over the next several generations, the
overall effect of climate change will be positive for humankind and the
planet." It will be hard to argue for a doomsday scenario on the basis
of that.
But after more than a decade of increasingly frantic predictions, the
activists will not fold their tents and go home. "The climateers have
been doing vigorous 'battle space preparation' ahead of the report,"
says Steven Hayward, a conservative scholar who writes frequently about
the politics and science of global warming. "They're priming the media
to say 'we're still doomed,' even though the case for doom has been
badly eroded over the last couple of years."
Given how deeply the IPCC is invested in the issue — it shared the
Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007 — there's little doubt the report
will give environmental activists at least something to work with. For
example, it appears IPCC scientists will declare even more forcefully
than before that they are absolutely certain human activity is causing
warming. They will repeat previous calls for action against warming on a
global scale. There will still be dire warnings.
But the political debate will change. There's no way Congress will
consider upending the American economy with far-reaching tax or
regulatory schemes on the basis of flawed computer projections about a
phenomenon that may or may not require any action at all. The activists
can produce as many ads as they want. They can call opponents "deniers"
all they like. It just won't work.
SoRo: Let's take a stroll down Henny Penny Lane:
'October 2008 had the hottest global temperatures on record.'
- James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute Space Studies
FACT: No, it wasn’t. In 2007, NASA was forced to correct a serious mathematical error, and "1934 is now known as the warmest year on record, with 1921 the third warmest year instead of 2006 as was also previously claimed. Moreover, NASA now also has to admit that three of the five warmest years on record occurred before 1940-it has up until now held that all five of them occurred after 1980.'
JAMES HANSEN: 'Damn! Damn! Damn! How
did I make that mistake? I truly, truly, truly promise that I didn’t
mean to use corrupted Russian data from September.'
'1998 was the hottest year in over a century.'
- James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute Space Studies
HANSEN: 'Slap
upside my head! Slap upside my head! I really, really, really am
telling you the truth when I say that I didn’t intentionally hide the
decline and overlook the fact that 5 of the top ten hottest years in the last century -- 1921, 1931, 1934, 1938, and 1939 – before jets, SUVs, mass air conditioning, etc. I swear. Would I lie to you?'
'Global temperatures have continued to rise every year.'
- James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute Space Studies
FACT: No, they haven’t...more than 15 years.
HANSEN & GORE: 'Well, we didn’t
mean continuously. Global warming means that there will also be
periods of prolonged global cooling.'
'The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water.'
- James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute Space Studies, 1988
FACT: I can see it. It’s not. And, if you really did mean 40 years, that water had better start rising because it actually hasn't changed at all.
HANSEN: 'Um, is anyone else warm? I’m getting a little warm. Can someone turn the air down?'
- James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute Space Studies
'Under
the greenhouse effect, extreme weather increases. Depending on where
you are in terms of the hydrological cycle, you get more of whatever
you’re prone to get. New York can get droughts, the droughts can get
more severe and you’ll have signs in restaurants saying “Water by
request only.'
- James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute Space Studies
FACT: No, there's still plenty of water available....tap,
fizzy, or specially-made sparkling tap water ... prices for the latter two
available upon request.
HANSEN: ‘Um, I am really, really beginning to feel
uncomfortable. May I get a glass of
water, please?’
'The
glaciers in the Himalayas are receding quicker than those in other
parts of the world and could disappear altogether by 2035.'
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report
FACT: No, they aren’t. The 'prestigious' IPCC cribbed that hysterical charge from a World Wildlife Fund 2005 report on panda bears (see p.11), which it had palmed from an article titled "Flooded Out" in the New Scientist magazine (not a journal, but a sort of Popular Mechanics for the DIY science community). The original article quoted Professor Syed Hasnain, then Chairman of the International Commission for Snow and Ice's (ICSI) Working Group on Himalayan Glaciology, who said most of the glaciers in the Himalayan region "will vanish within 40 years as a result of global warming." The fact that Hasnain, of Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, has never repeated the prediction in a peer-reviewed journal was disregarded, overlooked, obscured, undisclosed, secreted, sequestered, shrouded, and suppressed by the “consensus” of the IPCC.
Professor Syed Hasnain later said the comment was 'speculative' and blamed the IPCC for misusing a remark he made to a journalist and is on the record saying, 'the magic number of 2035 has not [been] mentioned in any research papers written by me, as no peer-reviewed journal will accept speculative figures' and 'it is not proper for IPCC to include references from popular magazines or newspapers.'
GAIAN CULTISTS: “OK, well, Chairman Pachauri was really, really busy trying to get Harlequin Romances to publish his enviro, smutty bodice-ripper, shag fest, GaianPussyGalore book, “Return to Almora,” so it was just an accident. OF COURSE, it is correct in spirit, even if it is off by hundreds, if not thousands or millions of years.'
'55% of the Netherlands is underwater.'
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report
FACT: Not exactly. Only 26% is and that land is largely protected by the most sophisticated lock and levee system in the world.
GAIAN CULTISTS: “Stop being a flat –earther, denier, anti-science, Christian, Fascist hater!”
'Up
to 40% of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a
slight reduction in precipitation; this means that the tropical
vegetation, hydrology and climate system in South America could change
very rapidly to another steady state, not necessarily producing gradual
changes between the current and the future situation.…'
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report
FACT: Lie. Claim based on fraudulent information from the WWF and based upon non-peer-reviewed article written by one green activist and one journalist - neither of which is a scientist - that has been exposed as a fraud.
GAIAN CULTISTS: "Well, it COULD happen…Besides, you just hate the poor, oppressed minorities of the world!!!"
'The polar bears are becoming extinct.'
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report
FACT: No, they aren’t. The population has increased. Hint: Next time that you see a polar bear on a small piece of ice, remember that polar bears can swim and like to sun themselves.
VAN JONES & CHARLES MONNETT: 'You
are just a racist! If we were talking about the Black Bear or the
Brown Bear, you would be singing a different tune. Oh, wait…'
'Sea levels are rising and will cause islands to disappear (if they don’t capsize first because of the American military).'
- South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, 1999
FACT: Sea levels have fallen between 2004 and 2010.
JAMES, MICHAEL, IPCC: 'You lie! La-la-la-la-la-I-can't-hear-you!'
'Children just aren’t going to know what snow is...within a few years, winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.'
- Dr David Viner, Senior Research Scientist and the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, 2000
FACT: No. This statement was made before one of the worst winters in 100 years, which was followed by the second coldest winter (2010-11) since records began in 1659. The chilliest on record was 1683/84, when the average was -1.17C and the River Thames froze over for two months. In Europe, the 2010-11 winter was predicted to have been the worst in 1,000 years.
GAIAN CULTISTS: 'Liars, Damn Deniers, and Statistics!'
'Global warming means no snow or cold weather in DC.'
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., September 2008
RFK: 'But, global warming means MORE
snow, not less, silly! By the way, dude, do you know where I can
score some really good smack? Did I ever tell you about how I used to
grow eco-friendly poppies out on The Compound?'
'We have less than 100 months to stop climate change disaster.'
- Prince Charles, March 2009
FACT: The imagined catastrophe he hopes to avoid is otherwise due in July 2017
and he obviously didn't realise what a disaster that President Barack
Obama would turn out to be. If Obama is reelected, the world won't
have to wait until July 2017 for Armageddon.
LOONY PRINCE CHARLIE: "I happily talk to the plants and the trees, and listen to them. I think it's absolutely crucial."
'In Britain we face the
prospect of more frequent droughts and a rising wave of floods... If we
do not reach a deal at this time, let us be in no doubt: once the
damage from unchecked emissions growth is done, no retrospective global
agreement, in some future period, can undo that choice...There is no
'Plan B.''
- Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown before the Major Economies Forum in London, which brings together 17 of the world's biggest greenhouse gas-emitting countries, 2009
FACT: LOL, Henny Penny! But all humour aside, of course there was a Plan B, Gordo! It was called "Pressuring the Scottish Parliament To Release Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi On 'Compassion Grounds' So That BP Could Get An Oil Concession From Moammar Qaddaffi." Guess what? There was ALSO a "Plan C"! It was called the "Sarkozy-Cameron-Obama 'Let's Bomb Qaddaffi And Help Create A Islamist Paradise In The Hope That Europe Can Keep Getting Libyan Oil.'"
GORDO: "Keep it up and you won't have me to kick around anymore!"
Fantastic!
Fantastic!
'People
think about geothermal energy - when they think about it at all - in
terms of the hot water bubbling up in some places, but two kilometers or
so down in most places there are these incredibly hot rocks, 'cause
the interior of the earth is extremely hot, several million degrees,
and the crust of the earth is hot ...'
- Nobel Laureate Al Gore, 2011
- Nobel Laureate Al Gore, 2011
FACT: The average temperature of the Inner Mantle of the Earth is 5400°F and the core of the Earth is about 7000°F.
GOREACLE: “Yeah, sure. Who are you
going to believe? Who do you think people are going to believe - a law
school dropout and divinity school flunkie, who invented the internet,
or yourself?"
'In 2007, a British High Court ruled that, in order for Al Gore's shockumentary, "An Inconvenient Truth,"to be shown in schools, "the Government must first amend their Guidance Notes to Teachers to make clear that 1.) The Film is a political work and promotes only one side of the argument. 2.) If teachers present the Film without making this plain they may be in breach of section 406 of the Education Act 1996 and guilty of political indoctrination. 3.) Nine inaccuracies have to be specifically drawn to the attention of school children."
FACT: Dear Goreacle: A High Court judge ruled that there
were nine scientific errors in your movie, 'An Inconvenient Truth', called it
"science fiction", and ordered you to provide a listed document
explaining those nine scientific errors when distributing your
"politically biased" (the court’s words) film to schools. You
have never responded in any way, shape or form.
GOREACLE: “Racist!”
No, Fat Al, THAT would have been your Daddy.
'Under the greenhouse effect, extreme weather increases.
Depending on where you are in terms of the hydrological cycle, you get more of
whatever you’re prone to get. New York can get droughts, the droughts can get
more severe and you’ll have signs in restaurants saying “Water by request
only.'
- James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute Space Studies
“The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.”
- Nigel Calder, first Earth Day, 1969
FACT: Calder is a long-standing skeptic of manmade global warming. As early as 1980, he predicted that within 20 years "the much-advertised heating of the earth by the man-made carbon-dioxide ‘greenhouse’ [will fail] to occur; instead, there [will be] renewed concern about cooling and an impending ice age".
Two words for you nuts: 'CERN' & 'CLOUD.'
The report blows away the Warmist hysteria regarding sea rise,
temperature rise, melting glaciers, “extreme” weather, the Arctic, and
every other bit of doom and gloom.
“We conclude no unambiguous evidence exists for adverse changes to the global environment caused by human-related CO2 emissions,” the authors write. “In particular, the cryosphere is not melting at an enhanced rate; sea-level rise is not accelerating; no systematic changes have been documented in evaporation or rainfall or in the magnitude or intensity of extreme meteorological events; and an increased release of methane into the atmosphere from permafrost or sub-seabed gas hydrates is unlikely.”
I’d highly recommend reading at least the Summary For Policymakers. The study focuses on actual observable data, rather than computer models, micro-reconstructions, and “normalized” data. Nor does it completely dismiss what Mankind does, but notes that our works are miniscule in comparison to natural variability.
*Note: the attached graphic is not from the report, but one that has been out that highlights the difference between the Warmist computer models and real world observations.
Doomsday predictions from Earth Day 1970.
'We have about five more years at the outside to do something.'
- Kenneth Watt, ecologist
'Civilisation will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.'
- George Wald, Harvard Biologist
'We are in an environmental crisis
which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a
suitable place of human habitation.'
- Barry Commoner, Washington University biologist
'Man must stop pollution and conserve
his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race
from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.'
- New York Times editorial, the day after the first Earth Day
'Population will inevitably and
completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make.
The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per
year will be starving to death during the next ten years.'
- Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist
'By…[1975] some experts feel that food
shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and
starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts,
more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not
occur until the decade of the 1980s.'
- Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist
'It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.'
- Denis Hayes, chief organizer for Earth Day
'Demographers agree almost unanimously
on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin
in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan,
China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably
sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine
conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world,
with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia,
will be in famine.'
- Peter Gunter, professor, North Texas State University
'Scientists have solid experimental
and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a
decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air
pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of
sunlight reaching earth by one half….'
- Life Magazine, January 1970
'At the present rate of nitrogen
buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out
of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.'
- Kenneth Watt, Ecologist
Stanford’s Paul Ehrlich announces that the sky is falling.
'Air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.'
- Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist
'We are prospecting for the very last
of our resources and using up the nonrenewable things many times faster
than we are finding new ones.'
- Martin Litton, Sierra Club director
'By the year 2000, if present trends
continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t
be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er
up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.'
- Kenneth Watt, Ecologist
'Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of
the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between
75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be
extinct.'
- Sen. Gaylord Nelson
'The world has been chilling sharply
for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be
about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but
eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it
would take to put us into an ice age.'
- Kenneth Watt, Ecologist
http://tinyurl.com/nkyz87b
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